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Euro, Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Falls on Greece Funding Deal

DailyFX.com –

Talking Points:

  • Euro to Look Past CPI Data, Focus on Greece Debt Negotiations
  • Greek Deal May Boost Aussie and NZ Dollar, Boost Japanese Yen
  • Access Real-Time FX Markets Analysis with DailyFX on Demand

The preliminary set of March Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 percent, rising for a second consecutive month. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook.

Rather, the spotlight is likely to remain on Greece. Athens submitted a list of proposed reforms on Friday. The markets now await the verdict on whether the “institutions” representing Greece’s creditors – the EU, the ECB and the IMF – will approve it and unlock the next round of bailout funding. Investors fear that if external funding is not secured, a cash crunch and subsequent default may lead to the country’s exit from the Eurozone.

On balance, both sides of the negotiation are interested in a deal. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and company surely realize that a disorderly redenomination will probably compound the country’s economic woes and cost them their jobs. Meanwhile, EU and IMF officials no doubt prefer to avoid a “Grexit” scenario for fear of the precedent it may set. On balance, this means that some kind of accommodation is more likely than not.

An accord that prevents a default and keeps Greece in the currency bloc is likely to prove supportive for the single currency. Follow-through may be somewhat limited however as on-going ECB QE casts a dark cloud over the near-term outlook. It may likewise boost overall risk appetite, sending the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars upward while punishing the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Needless to say, failing to reach a deal stands to produce the opposite response.

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— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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