Dollar Weakens Further Against Rivals On Rate-hike Bets

The dollar traded lower against its rivals Monday after recording its largest weekly percentage decline against the euro since October 2011.

The euro traded at $ 1.0883, compared with $ 1.0821 Friday evening.

Several analysts, including Kit Juckes, said that traders are trimming bets that the dollar will strengthen against its rivals, driving further weakness in the buck as traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later, and more gradually, than previously thought.

“I’m sure we’ll see positioning data over the next couple of weeks that will take the long-dollar position down by a significant hunk,” Juckes said.

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, released on Friday, dollar-long positions declined to $ 40.5 billion in the week ended Tuesday, down from $ 44.7 billion the previous week. In November, net dollar-long positions hit $ 49.4 billion, its highest level since 2008.

A consumer-price index reading for February, expected Tuesday, and first-quarter gross domestic product data, due Friday, are likely to trigger volatility in the dollar in the coming days, said Jameel Ahmad, chief market analyst at FXTM.

“Unless the U.S. data is really bad, I think the euro-dollar is still firmly bearish,” Ahmad said. The ongoing standoff between German and Greek officials over the next installment of Greece’s bailout remains a risk, Ahmad added.

Traders will be awaiting news out of a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, scheduled for Monday. They will also be watching a speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, set to begin 12:30 p.m. Eastern.

U.S. stocks started the session higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.18%, or 4 points to 2,111.6. The yield on the 10-year note weakened 1.4 basis points to 1.918%.

The dollar (USDJPY) traded at 119.71 yen, its lowest level against the Japanese currency in nearly a month. It traded at 120.04 Friday.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the buck’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, was down 0.76% to 97.1540.

The pound

The currency of the U.K. traded flat against the dollar Monday, but Juckes said it appears vulnerable, as the polls for May’s Parliamentary elections suggest the Scottish National Party could make huge gains in representation.

“A weak government, an expensive (vs the Euro) currency [and] outsize current account and budget deficits still make for longer-term concerns,” Juckes said in a research note.

The pound (GBPUSD) traded flat at $ 1.4933, compared with $ 1.4953 Friday. Meanwhile, one euro traded at 73.16 pence, compared with 72.36 pence Friday.

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